Litecoin (LTC) seems to have started a new trend against Bitcoin (BTC) as it has broken out of an important falling wedge against Bitcoin (BTC) on the LTC/BTC daily chart above. This falling wedge extends all the way to January this year when the correction began. Normally, this would be considered a big win for Litecoin (LTC) as the price is about to begin a new trend which after an extended correction is expected to be a bullish one. However, RSI analysis for Litecoin (LTC) presents a completely different picture which also brings us closer to reality and demonstrates that it is not going to be easy.
RSI for LTC/BTC has also been trading in a wedge but it is a rising wedge as opposed to the falling wedge for LTC/BTC. This means that the RSI will be expected to break below its rising wedge in the near future, a bearish development that would lead to LTC/BTC falling lower. At this point, LTC/BTC is trading along the trend line a break below which could be a very bearish sign for Litecoin (LTC) as it might trigger massive panic selling. There is no support at this point except for the trend line. If the price falls below it, it will be in a complete free fall and will then be up to the investors to pick it up from there. VIX profile on the daily chart for LTC/BTC shows that the price has found some short term support around existing levels, and that it will be hard to push the price lower from these levels. However, if the bears manage to pull this off, it could push Litecoin (LTC) into a long term bear trend.
Litecoin (LTC) appears to be even weaker against the US Dollar (USD). The above daily chart for LTC/USD shows that Litecoin (LTC) can still touch the lower limit of the falling wedge it is trading in. However, if it does that, it would mean breaking below the $50 psychological support. If that happens, it will likely be followed by massive panic selling. The volume is already low and most of the investors holding on to cryptocurrencies at this stage are those with strong hands. They are not likely to bow before manipulation tactics of the whales in normal conditions. However, if the market breaks structure and signs of a long term bear trend start to emerge, then a large number of current investors would be ready to jump ship which would make it even easier for the bears to drive the price lower.
What makes things so complicated for coins like Litecoin (LTC) is that they really do not have any specific use cases of their own. Most of them are spin off coins claiming to do what Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to do so far. However, none of these spinoff coins have any idea what their place in the market will be once Bitcoin (BTC) overcomes those problems. People in the market at this stage are mostly professionals and smart people. They realize that the lack of distinct use cases for most coins like Litecoin (LTC) makes them risky investments in the long run. This is why during yesterday’s correction; we saw coins like Lisk (LSK) and Golem (GNT) stand their ground compared to coins with no use cases, even though both of them are normally considered volatile altcoins with deep losses during a correction. As the market matures, certain coins will lose their spot because they will fail to catch up on account of no real use cases or applications. It is true that this is a fairly big space where a lot of projects can coexist, but not spinoff projects. They may exist but not the way they do today.