Bitcoin (BTC) has had its days of wild swings since the beginning of this correction. However, the past few months have seen more sideways movement and less aggressive moves. To some, this might be a strong sign that Bitcoin (BTC)’s correction is over and that the price is consolidating before beginning a new cycle. However, to others this might be a warning that Bitcoin (BTC) is about to fall further in the months ahead. Both of these contrasting opinions have their own merits and appear to be very reasonable. However, we believe that there are some important metrics that are being innocently neglected by both sides.
The biggest of these metrics is the impact of Bitcoin (BTC) halvening. If we look at the above monthly chart for BTC/USD
, we can see that the price action followed by Bitcoin (BTC) during its last cycle closely resembles the one before it in a lot of ways. The only difference is in magnitude. The all time high reached during the last cycle was a consequence of a smaller percentage gain in price compared to that of 2013. Similarly, the cycle has also taken a lot less time to complete compared to the previous cycle ending in 2015. Just looking at the chart and comparing these two cycles, we can observe that the duration and growth rate of the last cycle seems to be half that of the one preceding it. On a closer look and detailed analysis we find the figure of 45% appearing over and over again.
If you compare the number of days it took to complete this cycle, compared to the last one, you would find that the new cycle lasted 45% of the duration of the previous cycle. Similarly, if you consider price growth, you will find that the price growth of the last cycle is 45% that of the previous cycle. No matter what segments of the two cycles you compare, you will come up with the same ratio of 45%. Let us now apply this ratio to the current cycle to deduce whether Bitcoin (BTC) has completed its correction or not. If you look at the above chart, you will see that the price retraced 63.45% below the 61.8% Fibonacci during the previous cycle before completing the correction. By our 45% ratio of halvening, the price has to fall 28.5% from its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in order to complete the correction. This means that the price must fall 28.5% from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $8386.58 in order to complete a correction. By calculation, that level comes down to $6043.68. We have already touched that level several times and the price is currently well above it, trading north of $6500.
The weekly chart above for BTC/USD
shows that Bitcoin (BTC) tested the third downtrend resistance at the beginning of the week but failed to break it. However, there is not much room to go down from here. Even, if the price were to fall with a factor of 50% magnitude decrease instead of 45%, it would mean that the price should fall 31.72% from its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This comes down to $5725 which is a level we have already tested. The price could still test it again but it has now become very clear that calls for a fall to $4000 or lower levels are quite implausible as they do not take into account the impact of Bitcoin (BTC) halvening on market cycles.