(BTC) has never really been in a long term bear market. The price has traded in an ascending channel since 2011 according to the BNC:BLX
weekly chart above. A long term bear market implies that the price has to break its ascending channel and enter a descending channel for a significant period of time. So far, Bitcoin (BTC) has had retracements and corrections, the biggest and longest of which was in 2014. However, this should not be alarming or even surprising to long term investors as the price has to fall back to the bottom of this ascending channel in order to rise again.
It would come off as a surprise to many to see that Bitcoin (BTC)
has been traded close to the bottom of this ascending channel since the beginning of 2016 but it has still not touched it. The price is currently trading just above $7,500 and in order to touch the bottom of this channel, the price will have retrace in the days ahead. The chances of Bitcoin (BTC) taking off from here without putting in a bottom are extremely low. Therefore, the price will have to fall further over the course of the next few days or weeks till it puts in a bottom.
The big picture, however, has never looked this bullish before, not even in 2011. The reason for that is not just fundamental. Technical conditions this time are a lot more favorable than they were in 2011. The price has had a major correction. It has been trading in a sluggish manner near to the bottom of the channel since the beginning of 2016. In other words, Bitcoin (BTC) has effectively completed a long boring wave of correction since the beginning of 2014. In addition to that, Bitcoin (BTC) in 2018 is perceived a lot differently than it was in 2011. Back then, most believed that Bitcoin (BTC) was just for drug dealers, or it was a scam, or maybe it is one of those projects that may eventually vanish off after it loses its luster. Now, if a period of more than 4 years of boring bearish action since 2014 can have this big a positive impact, imagine what the next bull run, which has the potential to push Bitcoin (BTC
) into mass adoption can do.
As explained above, short term, the price has to pullback and put in a bottom. The daily chart for BTC/USD
above shows that the price has effectively beached the 100 EMA as predicted in our last analysis on Bitcoin (BTC). The price is now struggling to get past the 50 EMA, which is likely to happen over the weekend as low trading volume on weekends allow for price to be manipulated easily. When that happens, the price will face no resistance to nosedive straight towards the support line. There is a high probability that this support line will be broken but as long as the long term weekly chart for BTC/USD respects its ascending channel, long term Bitcoin (BTC) investors have nothing to worry about.