Litecoin (LTC) is trading in a triangle with a high likelihood of breaking out in the days ahead. The price is currently at a point where it has almost equal space to move up or down in response to the overall market trend. If the bullish scenario prevails, Litecoin (LTC) will start reaching towards the top of this channel and probably escape it after some resistance to mark a new high. On the other hand, if a bearish scenario prevails, Litecoin (LTC) will fall below the triangle to settle at the bottom of this channel. That would mean reaching a valuation of $10 or lower by the end of the year.
Overall market conditions at this point do not favor a long term bear market. Some analysts, including Ran Neu Ner on CNBC often says that he is more convinced that a bearish scenario will follow and Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $5000s levels before a trend change occurs. In other words, they refer to a fall from current levels to below $6,000 as the bear trend. That is not a bear trend! A bear trend would mean Bitcoin (BTC) breaking and closing below 21 EMA on the monthly chart approximately below $6,000. That would mean violating key supports on the monthly chart and it would then be just the beginning of that bear trend. The bear trend would then start from that point and it will drag the market down to levels like $2,000 or lower per Bitcoin (BTC). That would be a bear market. Similarly, Litecoin (LTC) can be expected to fall significantly lower to pre 2017 rally levels.
In all fairness, a scenario like that is not possible until a major catalyst can prepare the market for further major downside at this point. As for Litecoin (LTC) in particular, as long as Bitcoin (BTC) continues to remain slow and costly to send and receive money, Litecoin (LTC) will continue to have its use. Bitcoin Lightning Network is still in the pipeline and most online vendors as well as buyers prefer to use a cryptocurrency like Litecoin (LTC) or Bitcoin Cash (BCH) for online payments instead of Bitcoin (BTC). This is because Litecoin (LTC) is faster and cheaper to use.
Price action for Litecoin (LTC) on the LTC/BTC chart shows Litecoin (LTC) to be trading in a falling wedge. It has also reached the bottom of the rising bullish channel and is now looking to bounce back into the channel. RSI levels for Litecoin (LTC) on both LTC/USD and LTC/BTC charts are near oversold levels and the volume continues to dwindle. Litecoin (LTC) is one of the few cryptocurrencies to have marked a drastic decrease in trading volume since the beginning of the year. Retail interest in Litecoin (LTC) seems to have faded over the months with Lightning Network around the corner and other lucrative market opportunities. However, most institutional investors entering the crypto game still see a lot of potential in Litecoin (LTC) and seem confident to add it to their long term portfolios.