Bitcoin (BTC) currently follows a clear symmetric correction replicating similar price action as during the 2017 rally except in the opposite direction. The time frame for these moves also appears to be similar. In other words, Bitcoin (BTC) correction is a mirror image of its last year’s rally. While Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment is near an all time low and the bulls are nowhere to be seen, it is pertinent to note that the bears are nowhere to be seen either. Recent discussions of a Bitcoin ETF being around the corner have convinced most bears to take their money and leave.
Another reason why the bears are not confident shorting at these levels is that the low volume is so low that any big investors with a couple of million dollars could place an order on an exchange like Bitfinex and liquidate most shorts with relatively high leverage. For lower leverage, any shrewd investor would consider the risk/reward. As it happens in this case, the reward is not much. Best case scenario Bitcoin (BTC) would make some quick moves to sub $6,000 levels and be back above its current price before the trader can take profit. Worst case scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) could break out of the downtrend and liquidate their short position if a whale or institutional investor buys on an exchange instead of OTC.
The reason bears are so careful at these levels is that the further down Bitcoin (BTC) price falls in the falling wedge, the easier it becomes for Bitcoin (BTC) to break out of the downtrend. As the price and volume both decrease, it only requires one or two big players to push the price higher by breaking resistance. An event like that is seen as a big development and influences the overall outlook of the market. This means that investors who had gone short at such levels or missed out on accumulating may lose out permanently.
A lot of dots are starting to connect together. The best way to predict the future of Bitcoin (BTC) is to look at the big picture. Price action on the monthly chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is still in an uptrend and is poised for a big run up in the near future. Since 2014, the price has tested and bounced off the 21 EMA at three critical points. The first time it happened was in late 2013 when the price tested the 21 EMA after a big rally. It held and was followed by a big run up towards the top of the bullish channel to a price of $1000+. This was followed by the Mt. Gox hack which brought the price back to lower levels but soon afterwards, the 21 EMA was tested again and it held, so the price rallied up all the way to $20,000. Now we are back at a point where Bitcoin (BTC) has tested 21 EMA and held strongly. If the price continues to stay above 21 EMA for this month and the next, we can definitely expect to see another run up to above $20,000 levels from here.