Long term trends are one of the best indicators of future price action for any asset, including Bitcoin (BTC). The reason why they work so well is that they have been tried and tested at different phases of the market cycle on a much larger scale. While we may not have as much data for Bitcoin (BTC) as we would like to, it is still a better idea to base any technical analysis on the larger time scale of more than six years for Bitcoin (BTC) instead of drawing lines and patterns on a six months or two years chart.
For Bitcoin (BTC), we have access to more than 6 years of data that we can use to draw conclusions and mark future possibilities. The above chart for Bitcoin/US Dollar shows how Bitcoin (BTC) has performed over the years ever since January 2012. As we can see, the price has followed a bullish period of 2 years followed by a bearish period of 3 years. This alternating cycle is what keeps Bitcoin (BTC) trading in the bullish channel drawn on the above chart. An interesting observation in the chart above is that Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to stay above the green line which bears significant resemblance to how it traded above the green line in late 2013. Bitcoin (BTC) also seems to be following another similarity of a five candles consolidation before the next rally. This means that we are on the verge of another bull run which could take Bitcoin (BTC) to a high of $130,000 for the year 2018. Following the above trend, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to hit the top of the bullish channel during that period which will result in a bearish period of another 3 years extending to 2022.
While we may have access to a data of more than 6 years, some analysts with a bearish bias base analyses on data from 2014 onwards. There are three categories of such analysts. One that comprises of permabears (permanent bears) who believe Bitcoin (BTC) is headed to zero. Another category comprises of opportunity bears (bears with vested interests) who want to create fear and uncertainty in the market. This group of analysts and traders usually analyze charts on lower time frames like 60 minutes or 4 hours and with those charts of lower time frame, they make predictions for the entire year! This category of bears expects the price to come down so they can buy, but they do not have a long term bearish bias. The third group of analysts with bearish bias is the ones who base their analyses on facts and figures. This is the group whose ideas we are interested in discussing.
The above chart shows a 2014 style bearish scenario. Some analysts try to draw lines up to $6,000 or $7,000 because that is where they want it to come down. However, if a bearish scenario is to hold, it will be followed completely, all the way. This would mean that Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $20,000 in January 2018 and is now just getting started to complete a 2 years correction which will drive the price down to $4,000 to complete an 80% correction like it did after 2014 when the price fell from a high of $1,000 to a low of $200. It also means that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue going down till 2022 to reach that $4,000 target, despite all the positive developments in the cryptocurrency markets and blockchain industry.
So, if a 2014 style scenario is to follow, it will have to complete the cycle and not just make a mid air trend change. In all fairness, that does not seem likely given the progress that blockchain technology has made over the past few years. Besides, the price already had a major correction. To expect it to go further down and to continue to stay down till 2022 despite all that is going on in the cryptocurrency space makes little to no sense. However, in case the above analysis does hold true and Bitcoin (BTC) undergoes a correction to reach $4,000 by the end of 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) will start a bullish recovery from there, even according to this bearish view which makes you wonder what all this fear and uncertainty is about.