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Analytics / Bitcoins / Breaking News

Bitcoin (BTC): Best and Worst Case Scenarios Analyzed

Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades above $9200 and is well on its way as far as our bullish scenario is concerned. I’ll start with the best case Bitcoin (BTC) scenario first because that is also the most likely one. As you can see in the chart above, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently following a similar price action to that of late 2013. This means that we could continue to see some accumulation over the next few weeks followed by a very exuberant bull run in the form of big long candles just like we did back in 2013. The charts look extremely similar and Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have found support at the yellow trend line. It also shows how Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off light blue (cyan) resistance line in early 2018 just like it did in early 2013. All of these similarities point to a pending bull run for 2018 that would push the price up to $100,000 to $150,000 in the best case scenario.

Analysts have come up with a wide range of Bitcoin (BTC) predictions for 2018. The modest ones are near $25,000 whereas the bullish ones are near $100,000. There are bearish scenarios as well but they are mostly based on a comparison with 2014 which many in the Bitcoin community believe to be flawed as the crash was a consequence of the notorious Mt. Gox hack. The circumstances are also a lot different and Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be in a much stronger position along with the rest of the cyrptocurrencies. Over the past few weeks, we have seen unprecedented signs of risk taking in the market especially in the altcoin sector. However, there is still a lot of fear in the market and it is possible that some investors may take profits around $13,000 and $20,000 levels. If that profit taking is high enough, it will hinder Bitcoin (BTC)’s chances of hitting $100,000 by the end of 2018. This brings us to our bearish scenario.

The bearish case does not look to be as logical and well substantiated as the bullish case but there are still some signs to look for. In the bearish scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) reached its peak in 2014 and seems to have reached its peak again in 2018 around $20,000 level. This means that Bitcoin (BTC) can fall as low as $4,000 to $2,000 by 2020. While the probability of that happening, in the light of recent events seems very low, it still cannot be ruled out.

We have also seen how Bitcoin (BTC) recovered swiftly from $6,000 which further vindicates a bullish outlook. Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs seem to be around the corner and institutional interest is at its highest. Most of these signs point to a bullish scenario but setting personal bias aside, let us consider what this means for you investing in Bitcoin (BTC) now without knowing whether 2018 will be bullish or bearish.

If the bullish scenario holds, we will see a price rally to new highs around $100,000 to $150,000 around the end of 2018. This is also the most probable scenario. On the other hand, if the bearish scenario holds, we will see the price fall to around $2,000 by the end of 2020. Interestingly enough, even in the bearish scenario, the price will start rising again at the beginning of 2021 and reach a high of $200,000 around 2022.


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