Prominent financial strategist Tommy Lee has branded predictions of lofty $25,000 Bitcoin value from finance experts as “too conservative”. His comments came from an interview with Business Insider when the notorious supporter of Bitcoin over Wall Street repeated the popular belief that harnessing the power of gold is fundamental.
His research concludes that 5% of gold’s current market cap would give rise to a cautious estimate of around $25,000 per coin.
Flaw in the 5% ‘Rule’
Lee calls that 5% cap “the most conservative collection of elements”. He justifies this by saying that we limit our outlook by assuming gold only appreciates in value in terms of a nominal GDP. Inflation is not taken into account. So although that 5% figure has frequently been put forward by sources across the cryptocurrency industry, Lee thinks there is real potential for considerably higher prices.
Lee states that the figure of 5% reflects an assumption that investors will only allocate 5% to alternative currencies in their blended portfolio; an assumption that he feels is flawed. In fact, he asserts that modern allocations are actually far greater, citing cases where it’s actually closer to 10% or even 15%. With these numbers, the Bitcoin value could easily hit totals of $100,000-$200,000.
Bitcoin prices have humbled slightly this week, following a recent surge that saw the virtual currency reach values close to $6,000 for the very first time. Lee himself is conservative about the value through to mid-2018, predicting that the $6,000 mark will remain the ceiling for that period.
But he is quick to say, on the volatility of Bitcoin, that people must remember that when we initially went with the gold standard of the dollar, gold’s volatility over a four-year period was very similar to Bitcoin’s volatility today. So he urges people to be optimistic about Bitcoin’s future.